Due to his failure in Ukraine and his friend Prigozhin, Putin’s power is wavering

[English translation by Yurri Clavilier of Du fait de son échec en Ukraine et de son ami Prigojine, le pouvoir de Poutine vacille published by Guillaume Ancel]

On 24 June, I was ready to publish an article about the need for patience in the face of what was too quickly framed as a « stalling » of the offensive launched on 6 June by Ukrainian forces to liberate their country, and which is now entering its third week of fighting. Indeed, we have very little relevant information from the Ukrainian side: when President Zelensky declares that the progress of the Ukrainian offensive is « slower than desired », he is merely appealing for patience, while we have received no substantiated indication of the actual progress of operations.

But current events caught up with me at an accelerated pace after an incident as significant as it is serious: the power that Putin has hitherto ruled as its absolute master is threatened with implosion. One of Putin’s liegemen, emblematic of the mafia-like society that has flourished in Russia under his leadership, rose up and shook the Russian regime as a result of the war in Ukraine and this offensive in particular.

Prigozhin, the fall of the mafia hawk puts Russia on the brink of implosion.

While the Kremlin declares daily that it has stopped the Ukrainian offensive, Prigozhin, Wagner’s mafia boss and Putin’s friend, asserts the opposite and even issues a declaration of war against the command of… the Russian army on 23 June:

« The PMC Wagner Council of Commanders has made a decision: the evil brought by the country’s military leadership must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They have forgotten the word ‘justice’, and we will bring it back. Those who destroyed our boys today, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I demand that no one resists. Anyone who tries to resist will be considered a threat and be destroyed immediately, including all checkpoints in our path. And any aircraft we see overhead. I ask everyone to remain calm, not to succumb to provocation, and to stay at home. Ideally, those who are in our way, don’t come out. Once we have finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our homeland. The presidential authority, the government, the Ministry of the Interior, the Rosgvardia and other departments will continue to function as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the army will be restored. And after that, justice for all Russia. »

Prigozhin’s declaration of war forced Putin to react against a man who until now appeared to be no more than one of his puppets. Would Prigozhin escape Putin after his failure at Bakhmut, where he thought he would bring the master of the Kremlin a glorious victory, but brought back only a small town turned to ashes and in ruins, as destroyed as were most of « his » mercenaries?

The failure of Bakhmut and Prigozhin’s disgrace

Prigozhin’s company is first and foremost a mafia-like endeavour that owes its existence solely thanks to the « benevolence » of the Kremlin master. Through Concord, the parent company of Wagner, it is a « service company » that has been awarded lucrative catering contracts for the Russian armed forces. Yet, Wagner itself is best known for its mercenary activities, particularly in Africa, where it sells security for the power of a few autocrats. In exchange, Wagner can plunder economically the resources of the concerned country or region, like a leech on its host.

Its recruitment includes « dogs of war », lost soldiers who were kicked out of the regular army or were not able to enlist, then ex-convicts, mirroring Prigozhin’s personal history (he served 9 years in prison). The renown of Wagner skyrocketed specifically while in Syria. Its militia illustrated itself for the gruesome violence and war crimes perpetrated, in a wicked and sordid competition with the Russian army.

Yet Prigozhin’s main force is the one fighting on the media front, an army of trolls tasked with spreading the Wagner boss’s alternative truths, which Donald Trump would have appreciated for the cynicism and untruths shamelessly disseminated on social media. This force of communication is not insignificant, as it allows Prigozhin to broadcast his own news without depending on Russian state-controlled media, an essential element in the crisis he has provoked.

When Prigozhin thought he was a warlord by alienating the Russian army leaders

It was the war in Ukraine that brought Prigozhin out of the shadows, and this mafia leader took on the mantle of a warlord, wanting to demonstrate a military knowledge he never had.

This video grab taken from handout footage posted on June 24, 2023 on the Telegram account of the press service of Concord — a company linked to the chief of Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin — shows Yevgeny Prigozhin speaking inside the headquarters of the Russian southern military district in the city of Rostov-on-Don. © AFP

Faced with the repeated failures of Putin’s soldiers in Ukraine, Prigozhin made a habit of setting himself up as a loud and violently critical competitor of the Russian armies, or more precisely of their leaders: every opportunity was good to show that he could easily overcome the mediocrity of the military organization thanks to his experience as a businessman. War had become a business, and all it took was the necessary means to win any battle.

And so Prigozhin decided publicly to offer his master a stunning victory to restore the lustre of a « special military operation » that was, on the contrary, evidently bogged down. During the summer of 2022, he promised Putin the capture of Bakhmut, a city at the centre of the frontline, a town of no military importance but on which he would concentrate all his « know-how » in order to take it and make his master shine.

Unfortunately for Prigozhin the battle of Bakhmut did not turn out in his favour. Ukrainian forces put up a fierce resistance to Wagner’s mercenaries, while the Russian armies reminded Prigozhin that his victory depended primarily on their goodwill. When the Russian military withdrew their units around the town and reduced the intensity of the artillery fire that made all the difference in this confrontation, the Ukrainian forces immediately regained the ground lost, causing Prigozhin’s operation to falter.

In the end, Putin ordered the Russian armies to provide the necessary support, so that Prigozhin could announce, only on 20 May, that he had conquered this martyred city, which was nothing more than a heap of ruins. And Wagner’s boss withdraws from the front at the beginning of June, in what appears to be more of a sidelining than an exfiltration.

When Prigozhin fears the Ukrainian offensive.

Putin probably expected his friend Prigozhin would keep a low profile, who on a side note also manages part of Putin’s fortune, especially as a large part of his « army » was destroyed in his assault on Bakhmut, probably killing more than 20,000 people and wounding 4 times that number. All that remains is a « decimated » mercenary troop that can no longer even serve as a strategic reserve for the Russian armies, as they prepare for the great Ukrainian offensive.

Yet, as soon as Ukraine started its liberation operation on 6 June, Prigozhin cried out his criticism on the media, questioning the reality of the reassuring assessments made by his master – Putin – and, of course, the competence of the army senior officers, blaming Minister Shoigou and the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Gerasimov.

Prigozhin’s vulgar, popular rhetoric castigates the military command, but also the obvious failure of the “special military operation” against Ukraine. These constant criticisms challenge Putin’s policies, despite being forbidden in what remains of public expression in Russia. And these virulent and often crude criticisms seem to be rather appreciated by a part of the Russian population that is fed up with the official communication, which is completely locked down and anaesthetized by the Kremlin.

The defence minister, with Putin’s support, is trying to « bring this cumbersome friend back in line ». The Russian regime demands that its mercenaries sign a contract with the Ministry of Defence, to « benefit from the social advantages provided for ex-servicemen ». Kadyrov, Chechnya’s « head of state », who depends entirely on Putin’s power, has understood this, and immediately announces that his soldiers will comply with the Kremlin’s new rules.

But Prigozhin resists and exerts an increasing (media) pressure to make his personal enemy, the Minister of Defence, give in.

What is going on at the mercenaries’ bases?

Wagner soldiers are under heavy pressure from the Russian military command, and Prigozhin, rather than give up, kidnapped a senior Russian officer to make him confess publicly that the brave militiamen of Wagner – or rather, what is left of them – are being harassed by the Russian army.

On Friday 23 June, alarmed by the consistent progress of Ukrainian forces and the mounting Russian losses which mean that Putin’s « official » armies will eventually shatter, if they are not already shattering, Prigozhin gets scared. He is afraid for himself too, when he realizes that the Ministry of Defence has every intention of wiping him out. Prigozhin even claims that Russian military units have hit his own bases to silence and subdue him.

With a small troop of mercenaries in poor condition and after failing to be the warlord he ambitioned to be, which essentially consisted of damning the military leaders, Prigozhin realizes that he is on the brink of the abyss: he then unleashes an armed insurrection which he claims to be leading against these military leaders whom he hates, but which in reality threatens the entire Russian regime and especially Putin’s power.

Wagner mercenaries are weak, both in numbers and in condition, but Prigozhin hopes to rally in his populist discourse a part of the Russian army fed up with the mediocrity of their command and equipment. A first column of a few vehicles seized the headquarters in Rostov, in the Russian region bordering Ukraine, which is « simply » in charge of operations in Ukraine, and whose soldiers put up virtually no resistance.

Another Wagner team reaches the Voronezh headquarters in another region bordering Ukraine and moves closer to Moscow.

Putin is forced to act to preserve his undermined authority.

Putin’s reaction is firm, in words: in a filmed intervention on morning 24 June, he condemned what he described as « a military uprising, an insurrection, treason and even a stab in the back ».

Vladimir Putin denounced the « deadly threat » and the risk of « civil war » that Prigozhin’s actions created. He urged the country to unite, acknowledging that his power was wavering.

A power crisis directly linked to the Ukrainian offensive.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian offensive continues apace, with an intensity that bears no relation to the scant information reaching us. Repeated assaults by Kiev’s armoured forces, supported by the allies, are inexorably battering the Russian lines, and causing their military position to weaken.

It should also be noted that the combat zones shown on this map represent only half of the frontline, while the Ukrainians have not yet committed the bulk of their armoured forces to the offensive. Having concentrated Putin’s soldiers over some 600 km and inflicted heavy losses on them, it would not be surprising if Ukrainian forces were to seek to outflank them…

As part of this offensive, the Chongar bridge, linking the Kherson region to Crimea, was hit by the Ukrainians on 22 June.

As with the Kerch bridge, the Chongar bridge was not destroyed, but it was sufficiently damaged to make the logistical flow from Crimea, crucial for the Russian armies in the southern part of the front, extremely difficult.

The bridge is located more than 120 km from the frontline. The Russians claim that it was attacked by Storm Shadow missiles, but the damage observed does not resemble that of the super-powerful payload carried by this missile (450 kg, the equivalent of 10 artillery shells), but rather that of a 125 kg JDAM bomb or a GLSDB missile (delivery of which has now been « announced » for later…), which does not really matter, except that the Ukrainians really do have a deep strike capability that the Russians do not know how to protect themselves against.

Confronted with the reality of these military facts, Prigozhin realized that the Russian armies would not be able to stand up to the power now available to Ukrainian forces, and that the lies of the Russian general staff could not disguise for much longer the fact that failure is the eventual fate of this « special operation » led by Putin’s troops.

Prigozhin’s desperate response to Ukraine’s offensive shatters Putin’s power.

Prigozhin’s desperate reaction of armed insurrection against his own « side » is proof that the allies’ strategy is bearing fruit. Indeed, the important strategic objective of this Ukrainian offensive is to defeat the Russian regime and shake Putin’s power. Putin is the key to Russia’s war against Ukraine, and his downfall is the prerequisite for any lasting peace.

Wagner militiamen are spotted in Voronezh and Lipetsk, some 400 kilometres south of Moscow. But early in the evening of 24 June, in a surprising development for which the reasons are still unclear, Prigozhin announces that he is turning back with his troops, who he said were now only 200 kilometres from Moscow, after negotiations with Belarusian President Lukashenko, another Putin supporter.

The leader of the paramilitary group says he wanted to avoid a bloodbath, which is why his mercenaries are returning « to the camps, in accordance with the established plan ». The contours of this « established plan » remain unknown.

It is not over yet, and the next few days will be decisive for Prigozhin, the mafia hawk who has probably signed his doom by destabilizing the Russian regime. This attempt at an armed uprising in his own camp shows that Putin’s power is now beginning to crack, his omnipotence is wavering, and so is his future.